Alright, so this week, I found myself staring at my fantasy lineup, really chewing on this one: Jordan Love or Baker Mayfield? It’s one of those decisions that can make or break your week, you know? And honestly, both have had moments where they look like world-beaters, and other times… well, not so much.
My First Steps in This Mess
So, the first thing I did, like I always do, was pull up their recent game logs. I’m not talking about just the fantasy points, though that’s part of it. I wanted to see the flow. How many attempts? How many completions? Were there a bunch of garbage time heroics, or was it steady production?
Then, I looked at the matchups. This is a big one for me. Sometimes a so-so quarterback can look like a star against a terrible pass defense, and a good quarterback can look pretty average against a lockdown secondary. I spent a good bit of time just mulling over who they were playing against. Are we talking pass funnel defenses? Teams that give up a ton of yards through theair?
Digging a Little Deeper (or Overthinking, You Decide)
I remember this one time, years ago, I had a similar choice. Two guys, pretty evenly matched on paper. I went with the “safer” pick, the guy who was supposed to have a higher floor. Well, he laid an absolute egg. My other guy? Exploded on the bench. That feeling stuck with me. So now, I try not to just play it “safe.”
So for Love and Mayfield, I started thinking about their situations.
- Who are their receivers? Are the top guys healthy?
- What about their offensive lines? Are they going to have time to throw or are they gonna be running for their lives all game?
- What’s the game script likely to be? Are they gonna be playing from behind and chucking it, or are they gonna be nursing a lead and running the ball?
I even went as far as to check some of those weather reports for the game locations. Sounds crazy, right? But a windy, rainy game can really mess with a quarterback’s day. Didn’t see anything too wild for either, thankfully, so that didn’t make the decision any easier.
What I Finally Landed On
After all that back and forth, looking at the numbers, considering the matchups, and even thinking about my past fantasy heartbreaks, I started to get a gut feeling. It’s not always scientific, this fantasy football stuff, is it? Sometimes you just get a hunch.
I took a peek at how many points each defense was giving up to quarterbacks on average. Then I thought about the offensive schemes. Is one team more pass-happy in general? Does one quarterback tend to get more rushing yards, giving him a bit of a higher floor or ceiling?
I actually jotted down a few pros and cons for each guy on a scrap piece of paper. Old school, I know. But sometimes seeing it written down helps clear the head. One guy might have the slightly better matchup, but the other might have been playing with more consistency lately.
So, after going through all that, I decided I’m rolling with Jordan Love this week. It was a close call, real close. Part of it is his recent upside, and I just have a feeling about his matchup being a bit more exploitable than what Baker is facing. It felt like Love had a slightly better chance to hit a big game, and sometimes you gotta swing for the fences.
Honestly, ask me next week, and I might have a different process or a different feeling. That’s the fun, and sometimes the frustration, of this game. You do your homework, you make your call, and then you cross your fingers and hope for the best. We’ll see how it plays out!
