Alright, so I’ve been diving into Damian Lillard’s player props lately. It’s become a bit of a side project, you know, just seeing if I can spot any patterns or get a feel for his game beyond just watching highlights.
First thing I did was just start tracking his basic numbers. Points, assists, and especially his three-pointers. Lillard’s known for those deep threes, so that felt like a natural place to focus. I wasn’t using any fancy software, just a simple spreadsheet. Game by game, I’d jot down his stats against the betting lines for those props. Simple stuff.
Then I started to dig a bit deeper. I’d look at his recent performances – was he on a hot streak or in a bit of a slump? That seemed pretty important. Sometimes a player just gets in a groove, or they’re off their game for a stretch. I tried to factor that in. I’d go back maybe five or ten games to get a sense of his current form.
Looking at Matchups and Team Dynamics
After a while, just looking at his own stats wasn’t enough. I figured the opponent must matter, right? So, I started paying attention to who the Bucks were playing. Some teams defend the three-point line really well, others are a bit leaky. I’d try to find some info on that – how teams defend guards, specifically point guards, and their perimeter defense stats.
I also considered the team situation. Is Giannis playing? How does that affect Lillard’s usage? Sometimes, if another star is out, a player like Lillard might take on a bigger scoring load. Or maybe he’d have to distribute more. It’s not always straightforward, that’s for sure. I’d just make notes on these things, trying to see if I could connect the dots.
My process usually went something like this:
- Check Lillard’s recent game logs – particularly points, assists, and made threes.
- Look at the specific prop lines for the upcoming game.
- Research the opponent: How do they defend his position? Are they tough on PGs?
- Consider team context: Any injuries? Recent team performance?
- Make a gut call based on all that, and then I’d track whether my “prediction” hit or missed.
It’s been a learning experience, man. Some weeks I felt like I had it all figured out, saw trends, and my notes seemed to point to clear outcomes. Then other weeks, totally unpredictable stuff would happen. A blowout game where he sits the fourth quarter, or an off shooting night that comes out of nowhere. That’s sports, I guess.
It’s definitely not a science, at least not the way I’m doing it. More like an ongoing experiment. I’ve found that just consistently tracking and making notes helps me get a better feel for things, even if it doesn’t guarantee I’ll get it right. It’s more about the process of digging into the game a bit more, which I find pretty interesting. Still tinkering with how I look at things, trying to refine my little system here and there.
